Bulls to fight back but...

Today, we should see the bulls continue to fight back after the bulls had the upper hand yesterday. Wall Street rebounded but European markets were flat. The bull is expected to dominate proceedings in the next couple of days. Nevertheless, the bear lurks around the corner. I expect selling pressure to persist and capping any rise. Investors should continue to unload on rallies as I foresee a bleak 2-3 months at least.

Here is one of the reasons why I feel this bull market is coming to a temporary end (2-3months consolidation). In Malaysia, the stocks that ran the earliest such as Gamuda (5398), SP Setia(8664) and Tenaga(5347) are under a lot of pressure for the past couple of weeks. On the other hand, property stocks in Singapore have already made a reversal. So, with the leaders coming under pressure, it is only a matter of time before the rest could follow suit. Buyers beware!!

As for Jaks (4723), I could have made a lot more if I held on. But with the overall market turning sour, in the end, I believe it could still turn out to a good move.

Further correction is likely

After Friday's 208pts fall on the Dow, we expect regional indices to follow suit this week. There is a chance of a rebound taking place either today or tomorrow as intra-day indicators are severely oversold. Nevertheless, the rebound is not expected to be very strong and I expect further selling pressure to set in later in the week. Any rebound right now is a chance to take profits. Investors should not take on any more risks at this point in time and in fact, he or she should be reducing it to the minimum.

As for my portfolios, I am going to continue to keep cash right now. Buying is no-no right now.

It is the end... for now

Gl0bal markets plunged last night due to concern of the subprime market in the US and a slowdown in takeovers (due to credit tightening). Dow fell 311pts. FTSE 100 fell the most in 4-years. Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, Sweden and Mexico fell more than 3% each. Is this the start of a new downtrend? The answer is yes and no. :)

Yes - in the short term. I am looking at a correction of at least 10% and for at least 2-3 months. This would provide a good platform for the markets to rally into 2008. That is your 'no' answer. The Bull train is not 'dead'.. it just temporarily needs servicing. :)

Fortunately, for the portfolios, I have closed out all position and am now only holding cash. For those who intend to ride this correction out - please try NOT to. Sell it first as there is always a good chance for you to buy back the stocks at a lower level.

Is this the beginning of the end?

Regional markets are taking a beating as I write this... well, not really a beating but most of them are currently 1-2% down for the day. It all happened right after lunch time... Hmmm, wonder whats happening? Nevertheless, technically, I have already cautioned earlier that a sudden fall could take place soon. If Wall St falls further in the next few days, I think we can kiss this bullish uptrend goodbye for now. I expect a consolidation of about 2-5months. From then on, the bull would continue its way higher into 2008, even 2009 if we are lucky. Take profits now ppl!!!!

Singapore Portfolio - update

What can I say? It is disappointing to say the least. I have closed out all the positions based on yesterday's closing prices.

For today, similar to the KLCI, the STI could rebound slightly in line with the rebound on Wall Street. I will be looking to get in again should the index closes above the 3,650-3,665 level again.

Malaysian Portfolio - update

Like I said earlier, I am closing out all of my positions. Regional markets fell too after Wall Streets sharp fall. With Wall Street rebounding slightly yesterday, the KLCI could rebound too.

Nevertheless, the lower liners seems to be holding on well, ignoring what's happening in the external markets.

If the index breaks the 1,390 again, that would be the signal to get in again. For now, I am going to stand aside.

Time to keep cash - 100% cash

After yesterday's sharp fall, Dow Jones would likely have confirmed the start of its downtrend. Dow Jones fell 226pts to its 4-month low of 13,716 while Nasdaq lost 50pts last night to 2,639. European markets also fell sharply last night.

The KLCI closed at its all time high yesterday. However, we have cautioned investors about a sudden reversal yesterday as well. I am going to cut all position today as I do not believe that Asia can buck the global trend.

I am also going to take whatever losses for the Singapore stocks today. Am going to keep cash until the time is right to get in again... :(

A market for trading

I believe this market is for trading and trading only. We are almost at the end of this current rally as even the smallest and 'almost unheard of' stocks are also rallying. This was the case (for the Malaysian market) in the 2004 rally as well as the 2000 rally. Stocks in Spore are also potraying similar characteristics.

Both markets are also showing similar chart patterns. KLCI is trying hard to break out of its 1,390 while STI is trying to break 3,650. The breakout should happen this week. The breakout would likely be the last leg up for this round. We should see a stronger and longer consolidation thereafter. So people, be vigilant!!! :)

Another volatile week ahead

It looks like another volatile week for both the KLCI and STI. I expect Wall St to be cautious as the mortgage worries still lingers. I believe that a sudden drop is coming soon in the US. As whether Asia can weather this fall is still to be seen. So, just be wary that there is a strong possibility that the fall could take place soon. Be warn!!!!

The fear of a sharp falling taking place soon was one of the reasons that I decided to unload most of the stocks in the portfolios. Will be taking a more cautious approach in the coming weeks. Most of the stocks added would likely be trading buys.

Singapore Portfolio - update

Similarly, we unloaded quite a fair bit of stocks in the portfolio. The portfolio is still down which is rather disappointing. Still, there is room for improvement.

Malaysian Portfolio - update

I have added MK Land (8893) and Jaks (4723) as new stocks in the portfolio for trading purposes. We closed out quite a 'few' position last week. Will have to see how well they will perform this week.

Jaks Resources (4723)

Jaks (4723) also consolidated a long while now and it is starting to move again. I believe it is time to get in again. Buying 20,000 shares of Jaks(4723) at RM0.83 and put a stop at RM0.75. Its target is its old high of RM0.945 or higher.

MK Land (8893)

Think I am going into this stock as it has consolidated for a long while since it rallied in May/June. I am going to buy 12,000 shares of MK Land (8893) at RM1.10 for the Malaysian portfolio. Stop is RM0.94. Looking at its old high of about RM1.50 as a target.

Singapore Portfolio - update

There is little to be happy about the Singaporean portfolio. The portfolio lost about 2.4% overall. I need to really brush up on the Singapore market. The portfolio saw losses with the largest coming from Hi-P where our Stop Loss was hit.

Like I said earlier, this is now a trading market. Buy and holds have to be put aside for now. Will try to look for trading buys from now on.

Malaysian Portfolio - update

This is how the Malaysian portfolio looks like right now. After taking profits and cutting losses, the portfolio is still up by about 4.1%. I am still holding on TMC Life as I believe that there is more upside still.

As the negative divergence increases, there is a higher chance of the index falling sharply in the next few weeks. From now on, it will be trading only for July and August i.e. buy and hold for about 2-5 trading days.

Malaysian stocks also easing

Even the lower liners are showing signs of lethargy. Coupled with a lower close on Wall St last night, I am going to close all of the positions today (except TMC Life) and hold cash. I shall wait on the sidelines till the dust settles. Since I foresee a correction soon, I might as well keep risk at a low level.

People be warn!!! The KLCI could be turning soon. Keep an eye on the 1,350 level followed by the 1,333 level. Break both and there is a good chance we are going to see a major or sharp correction.

What happened in Spore?

The STI and most of the stocks in the Spore market fell sharply in yesterday's afternoon session. I have yet to figure that one out but chartwise, the market is looking weak in the short term. The index needs to hold above 3,450 for this bull to continue or else the bear has taken over. With Wall St closing lower last night, we can expect more selling pressure in Spore. We will close all our position except Jadason, Asti and Miyoshi (which we will adhere to the stop). We will use today's closing prices.

More sideways movement

Wall St continued to rise and we can expect both the indices to do the same. Just be wary that DOW has risen for the past 4 days without retracement. So, it is highly probable that a pullback is likely. For this whole month, it seems like the lower liners are the flavour of the month. Stay with the lower liners today as well.

MBF Holdings (1236)

MBF Holdings (1236) looks good on the charts as it just broke out of its ST resistance. It has potential to rally to retest its Feb high of RM0.83 next. Stop at RM0.63. Unfortunately, we do not have enough fund in the portfolio to add this stock. So, I have no choice but to let this one pass.

A rebound is likely today

Both markets should remain mixed today in line with Wall Street. Some of the lower liners would continue to outperform or at least play catch up with the big blues. It is still a trading market right now as the holding period should not be more than 3 weeks. I will also be looking to unload should the market start running. Of course there is still chance that the stock would hit their respective stops but I am still optimistic in the short term.

Moving ahead a month or so, then I am not so bullish. In fact, I am rather bearish. I am looking at a 10% retracement at least before the bull continues well into 2008. Will have to wait and see if this projection of mine comes true or not. :) Buyers beware!!

How are we doing? - Singapore

As for the Spore portfolio, it is not doing very well. There is a slight improvement but nevertheless, it is still a tad disappointing.

Similarly, we see a pullback taking place for the STI in the coming weeks. Will also be looking to reduce the position on the portfolio this week.

How are we doing? - Malaysia

The portfolio is doing ok now. There is still room for improvement but the market or at least the KLCI is starting to look a bit dodgy going forward. Based on the charts, there could be a negative pullback on the cards. The pullback could take place sometime late July or early August. We would have to wait and see if this pullback really would happen.

I will be looking to close out some of the portfolio's position this week. Good Luck guys!

The bull has taken over.. for now

Dow rallied sharply on news that Wal-Mart's better than expected sales and also a surge in exports. So, it seems that the bulls are in charge now. Adding stocks to our portfolio this morning.

Adding to our Spore portfolio - Adampak 20,000 shares at S$0.57 and United Envirotech 30,000 shares at S$0.35.

Adding to Msian portfolio - TMC Life 5,000 shares at RM1.28.

Cenbond (7171)

This stock looks good on the charts. Willing to add this to our Malaysian portfolio now. Buying 8,000 shares at RM0.695. Putting a stop at RM0.58.

No action in the indices but...

I do not expect much action in the indices today. We could see a rebound in line with Wall Street. These are volatile times for index players or futures players. Stock investors or traders should still be able to ride it out trading lower liners.

Today I will be adding VTI Vintage (7595) to our Malaysian portfolio. Looking to about 15,000 shares of Vintage at RM0.565 and stop loss at RM0.48.

For Singapore, adding 20,000 shares of Serial System at S$0.24 (the stock could retrace a bit more but nvm). Stop is at S$0.20. Also adding AusGroup to the lot.. add 4,000 shares at S$1.99. Stop at S$1.80.

Suria (6521)

There is market talk that Suria could run up to RM2.00-2.10 after yesterday's strong run. Can it get there and how fast? Technically, it looks bullish as indicators are still pointing upwards. But personally, I would not buy at these levels. The downside risk is tad higher than its upside potential. At the end of the day, it is still down to personal preference. Buyers beware.

Wall Street tumbles

Wall Street fell sharply for the first time in six days on fears that the subprime market will hurt corporate earnings. Both S&P500 and Nasdaq also posted their worst decline in a month. The S&P is still stuck in a range of 1,480 and 1,535. The market could break either way. So, I guess investors ought to play the waiting game and wait for a breakout. Across the Atlantic, European stock markets also declined sharply yesterday.

Can the Asian markets hold up today? I guess not. :) The KLCI and STI would like undergo a pullback today. Selected lower liners would also be profit taking in line with the expected weaker sentiment. I am maintaining the portfolios for now.

Time to buy, buy and buy

I think that both the KLCI and STI markets are conducive for lower liners to flourish this week. I am looking to get in a couple of good stocks today. I will be looking to buy 25,000 shares of Nucleus Electronics at S$0.18 and put a 3 cents stop. Also buying 20,000 shares of Jadason at S$0.24.

In Malaysia, I will buy 8,000 shares of Hiap Teck Ventures at the opening at RM2.25 with a stop at below RM2.00. I am also tracking Melewar and Cresbuilder. I am just waiting for a pullback to get in.

Singapore Portfolio - review

This one is even worse. Could have been better. I think I need to add a few more stock or at least be at 80% invested in this bull market. Ok then, better find a few stocks that look good on the charts.

How well are we doing? Malaysia

Here is the Malaysian Portfolio. It is not really doing as well as I believe it could. Nevetheless, I am still confident that the portfolio will do well in the coming weeks.

Likely a flat day for the indices

Today, would likely be a flat to down day for both the indices. Yesterday, KLCI fell about 8pts yesterday after 4 days of gains. STI fell for the 2nd day led by Capitaland. STI lost 3pts yesterday. Still the bull is very much alive, albeit in the lower liners. Remain in the lower liners for now.

note: We are not adding any stocks to our portfolio today.

Minor consolidation today

KLCI could see some consolidation today after 4 days of gains. Nevertheless, there should still be interest in the lower liners. For the STI, the market would likely trade in a tight band today. I expect the index to trade between 3,535 and 3,576.

As for the portfolios, I will only be reviewing it weekly - probably on Mondays (where I have time to do the calculations over the weekend). Will be adding Miyoshi for Spore and YTL-E for Malaysia this morning.

YTL e-Solutions (0009)

Adding YTL e-Solutions (0009) to the Malaysian portfolio tomorrow morning. Buying 10,000 shares at RM0.65. Total purchase value = RM6,500. Stop at RM0.57. Getting in for the retest of its recent high of RM0.985. Monthly technicals looks good. Worth a punt on this one.

Adding Miyoshi Precision

Adding Miyoshi Precision into the Spore portfolio tomorrow morning on the opening bell. Buying 20,000 shares at S$0.26. Total purchase value of S$5,200. Stop loss at S$0.215.

Singapore Portfolio - debut

Similarly, I am going into the Spore market today. I am looking to buy

1. Asti Holdings - 25,000 shares at S$0.30. Total purchase value=7,500. Stop loss at S$0.24.
2. Hi-P International - 8,000 shares at S$1.02. Total purchase value=8,160. Stop loss at S$0.88.
3. IPCO - 50,000 shares at S$0.11. Total purchase value=5,500. Stop loss at S$0.07.

Cross my fingers!! Total purchase value is S$21,160.

Malaysian Portfolio - debut

Since I have the mock RM100,000 now, I am going into the market today! I have identified a few stocks to buy. It's shopping time!!! I am going to buy today -
1. Mieco (5001) - 10,000 shares at RM1.13. Total purchase value = 11,300. Stop loss atRM0.98.
2. Sarawak (2356) - 3,000 shares at RM2.24. Total purchase value = 6,720. Stop loss at RM2.05.
3. FSBM (9377) - 8,000 shares at RM1.52. Total purchase value = 12,160. Stop loss at RM1.35.
4. Success (7207) - 10,000 shares at RM0.97. Total purchase value = 9,700. Stop loss at RM0.82.
5. Ulicorp (7133) - 8,000 shares at RM0.735. Total purchase value = 5,880. Stop loss at RM0.64.
6. MPCorp (6548) - 10,000 share at RM0.455. Total purchase value = 4,550. Stop loss at RM0.37.

My total purchase for the day to RM50,230. Will see how it goes today.

A model portfolio

Since I do not have the money to really make it big in the markets, I might as well make it in a 'make believe' world. I would really want to see how well I can do in both the Spore and Msia markets. This is the bull market we are in - which means that we have a good chance of outdoing the fund managers. With a little help from friends (all of you), we can make this happen or least in this part of the internet world... :)

As for the mock portfolio, I would give myself RM100,000 and S$100,000 to trade in both markets. I am however going to ignore commissions for my trade (which in reality, there is no such thing as a free lunch.. haha). I have already mentioned a few stocks which has outperformed in the past month or so. And there are some which has not budge from its original position. I will 'buy' them based on yesterday's closing prices.

Go, go, go

With the backing of a strong close on Wall St, we should be able to see a better performance on both the STI and KLCI. Nevertheless, I think that there is more upside potential in the small cap or penny stocks.

Yesterday, a lot of MESDAQ counters saw a pick up in trading volume. The MESDAQ index also rose about 1.6% yesterday. I think MESDAQ would continue to see positive days ahead. Besides, there is less overhang (stale bulls) in these counters compared to the ones on the 2nd Board. I like Insbio (0088), I-Power (0069), MQTech (0070), FTech (0033) and ISS (0131).

In Singapore, Hi-P also just broke out of its major resistance. For a longer term play, now I prefer these two stocks - Asti and Hi-P. I also like Seksun, Beyonics, Meiban for their technical and fundamental outlook (note: these stocks have moved quite considerably from their lows or breakout levels).

Would the lower liners rally this week?

Both the indices (STI and KLCI) may trade sideways this week but the lower liners are expected to continue to shine. The KLSE 2nd Board and MESDAQ counters could rally this week. HPI (7919) started to move sharply last Friday while MCMTech has moved about 25% in the past 2 weeks. In Spore, the previous week's stars like Asian Micro, AsiaMedic, United Fiber System, IPCO. Technically, the one I like most is Asti Holdings. Also look out for laggard tech stocks in Spore.