Why is this a critical time? Well, it is critical that Dow stays above the 12,750-12,800 level. If it rebounds from here, there is a good chance that the final rally for the bulls is on the cards. However, should this level give way, then, it is TATA to the bulls for at least another 6months. I believe that this is a good level to get in, as the stop loss point is close by. Comparing it to the potential of 'returns' then you will see why this is a good level to get in.
STI needs to hold above the 3,300 level (which I think it will). LT players should accumulate around these levels as I foresee that the STI could retest its 3,906 high again sometime soon.
KLCI is at its all time high now. Follow through buying is expected to lift the index towards the 1,490, 1.618x Fibonacci extension target. Continue to buy on weakness. With construction and plantation counters already moved, property could be next. The 2nd Board is also looking good. Start looking for a pick up in volume in lower liners. They could be the next short term 'star'.
Monday, 7 January 2008
Friday, 4 January 2008
RM at new highs
In Bernama's report today - the Ringgit (RM) surged to RM3.28 against the US dollar, a new 10-year high, on strong commercial demand, particularly from foreign funds.
My 2 cents - Does this mean that a RALLY in the stock market is going to start soon? I believe so. Get ready for the ride of your life :)
My 2 cents - Does this mean that a RALLY in the stock market is going to start soon? I believe so. Get ready for the ride of your life :)
Accumulate slowly
I believe that this is about a good time to accumulate good stock as any. If my wave count is correct, then the US's and Europe's 4th-wave correction is about to end. Asia is likely already in the lead, with its 5th wave already on its way.
US could correct a bit more but this is about time to get in for the big and final rally of this bull run. Still, for this count to be 'correct', it has to stay above the 12,760-12,800 level in the upcoming trading days. A break above the 13,450 level would confirm that the 5th wave is on its way.
STI - is now in the buying range of 3,300-3,400, marginally.. If it drops further today, then the market is enabling investors to get in at a lower level. Construction counters Tat Hong and HL Asia are 2 stocks that I like. The smaller construction counters such as Yongnam and Lian Beng also are looking ripe to move. Property counters would follow suit.
KLCI - is now in the buying range of 1,420-1,440. Similarly, large construction counters such as Gamuda, WCT and IJM have already moved. Oil and Gas counters could move soon too as investors would like hop on the 'idea' that crude oil is close to US$100 per barrel. Plantation counters would also continue to gain further despite it outpacing the rest in Dec. Today, steel companies such as Ann Joo, Kinsteel, Masteel would likely rally again after yesterday's short pause.
US could correct a bit more but this is about time to get in for the big and final rally of this bull run. Still, for this count to be 'correct', it has to stay above the 12,760-12,800 level in the upcoming trading days. A break above the 13,450 level would confirm that the 5th wave is on its way.
STI - is now in the buying range of 3,300-3,400, marginally.. If it drops further today, then the market is enabling investors to get in at a lower level. Construction counters Tat Hong and HL Asia are 2 stocks that I like. The smaller construction counters such as Yongnam and Lian Beng also are looking ripe to move. Property counters would follow suit.
KLCI - is now in the buying range of 1,420-1,440. Similarly, large construction counters such as Gamuda, WCT and IJM have already moved. Oil and Gas counters could move soon too as investors would like hop on the 'idea' that crude oil is close to US$100 per barrel. Plantation counters would also continue to gain further despite it outpacing the rest in Dec. Today, steel companies such as Ann Joo, Kinsteel, Masteel would likely rally again after yesterday's short pause.
Thursday, 3 January 2008
Ranhill (5030) and RUBHD (5050)
In the Business Times today, Ranhill and its unit Ranhill Utilities (RUB) said they would always seek proposals to improve shareholder value in response to queries by Bursa Malaysia. There were reports that Tan Sri Hamdan Mohamad, the group's president and CEO, is planning to take Ranhill and RUBHD private.
Technically, the stock broke out of its bullish wedge pattern. Could see further upside from here. Upside target (is roughly based on the bullish wedge) is around RM2.75-2.80.
Technically, the stock broke out of its bullish wedge pattern. Could see further upside from here. Upside target (is roughly based on the bullish wedge) is around RM2.75-2.80.
US Markets tumbled
US stocks fell sharply on the 1st day of trading in the new year. This is Dow's worst start since 1983. The fall was led by banks and computer companies, after the announcement of the biggest decline in manufacturing numbers in 5 years. Intel fell the most in a year after Bank of America lowered its ratings. Caterpillar and IBM led the sharp fall in the Dow. Technically, Dow is likely doing the e-wave of its corrective Wave-4's triangle. However, should it fall below the 12,800 level, then the count is likely wrong. For now, the call remains. The Dow would likely rally into the 1Q after the e-wave ends.
STI is also stuck in a triangle since hitting a high in Oct. A drop to the 3,300-3,400 level is likely. Investors would likely do well buying quality stocks around these levels. I remain bullish on STI as I am bullish on Asia right now, at least for the 1H of 2008.
KLCI is likely to build a base around the 1,420-1,440 levels. Investors could choose to buy around these levels as the medium term uptrend is still intact. Continue to accumulate on weakness.
STI is also stuck in a triangle since hitting a high in Oct. A drop to the 3,300-3,400 level is likely. Investors would likely do well buying quality stocks around these levels. I remain bullish on STI as I am bullish on Asia right now, at least for the 1H of 2008.
KLCI is likely to build a base around the 1,420-1,440 levels. Investors could choose to buy around these levels as the medium term uptrend is still intact. Continue to accumulate on weakness.
Oil touched $100, commodities rallies
Crude oil rose to $100 a barrel for the first time in New York as record global fuel consumption threatens to outpace production. The 3-figures oil prices appears to be here to stay. Commodities elsewhere also continue to rise. Gold soared to a new high of US$860.10 an ounce while wheat and soybeans rose more than 3%. This rally in commodities was largely caused by the weakening US Dollar against major currencies. As US Dollar falls, it enhances the appeal of raw materials as hedges against inflation.
On this side of the shore - would the Malaysian Govt increase fuel prices? In the Financial Daily today, PM Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said that the government will have to increase gasoline prices "when the time is right"- two days after a pledge to cap tariffs at the pumps ended. Travelling would cost$ more $$. Food $tuff would likely see further hikes. Roti Canai would cost$ 15% more. The inflationary cycle goes on...and on... HOWEVER, there is one BIG problem to all of this though - the disposable income the stays the same. :(
On this side of the shore - would the Malaysian Govt increase fuel prices? In the Financial Daily today, PM Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said that the government will have to increase gasoline prices "when the time is right"- two days after a pledge to cap tariffs at the pumps ended. Travelling would cost$ more $$. Food $tuff would likely see further hikes. Roti Canai would cost$ 15% more. The inflationary cycle goes on...and on... HOWEVER, there is one BIG problem to all of this though - the disposable income the stays the same. :(
Wednesday, 2 January 2008
Minor pullback
STI ended the year with a bullish bar but in the short term, it appears to be still stuck in a triangle since the Oct peak. On the other hand, KLCI ended the year with a indecisive bar but week-on-week, the index is still looking bullish in the short term. What can we expect for the new year?
Investors should accumulate on weakness towards the 3,400 levels for STI and 1,440. Both indices are getting ready for a bullish 2008!! Investors also should be ready!!! Buy on weakness!
Technically, for S'pore - look out for Hor Kew Corp and Chip Eng Seng.
For M'sia - look out for TA Enterprise and Leader Universal. Ranhill could also run further today.
Investors should accumulate on weakness towards the 3,400 levels for STI and 1,440. Both indices are getting ready for a bullish 2008!! Investors also should be ready!!! Buy on weakness!
Technically, for S'pore - look out for Hor Kew Corp and Chip Eng Seng.
For M'sia - look out for TA Enterprise and Leader Universal. Ranhill could also run further today.
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