Thursday, 16 July 2009
Markets at new highs
As I write this blog, the markets around Asia are hitting new highs, higher than the June highs. KLCI is now at 1,120 while STI is also at a high of 2,432. Both markets should continue to edge higher in the medium term. KLCI should hit 1,160-1,170 and if we are lucky, the KLCI could even reach a high of 1,220. For the STI, it is likely to climb towards 2,640 levels. It is even possible for the index to hit 2,800-2,900 but it might be pushing it a bit. Nonetheless, both indices have a chance of riding on this strong wave upwards and rising to the higher end of the targeted range but it is still too early to confirm. We will have to wait and see if both indices can push past their initial targets. Happy Trading everyone coz this run could be the last run for a while. Once this run ends, the next fall will be a crash that will be an 'eye-opener'.
Wednesday, 15 July 2009
Back after a year out!
1 year have just passed with a blink of an eye. What have I done during the past year? Nothing much... getting on with life. Work, sleep, eat - in that order and that pretty much sums up the year :). Holidays u asked? Have been thinking a lot bout it but not doing much to actually make it happen. Does life actually get 'worse' when you get older?
Anyway, I will try to update this blog once in a while just for fun.. will try to add more stuff rather than just markets. :) probably add my favourite passion - footie, the EPL and of course Liverpool! hmm, what else can I add? I dunno, will add as I go.. Think that's enough for now.. catch ya soon!
Quote: Hopefully being a year older = a year wiser :)
Anyway, I will try to update this blog once in a while just for fun.. will try to add more stuff rather than just markets. :) probably add my favourite passion - footie, the EPL and of course Liverpool! hmm, what else can I add? I dunno, will add as I go.. Think that's enough for now.. catch ya soon!
Quote: Hopefully being a year older = a year wiser :)
Wednesday, 9 July 2008
Today is the day - the bulls hit back!!!
I believe that we may have found a bottom at 1,120 for the KLCI, or at least a temporary bottom. Over in the US, the DJI, SP500 and Nasdaq all appear to have found a bottom. In Europe, yesterday's looks a tad like a capitulation. With all these factors, going for the bulls, today could be the day the bulls hit back!! KLCI would like see a stronger rebound today. With the Futures markets in a deep discount, we could see a sharp rally to 'cover'. Investors may want to look at stocks with high beta - MRCB, Bursa comes to mind. I prefer the former as it has always been a 'trading' stock. Keep a good lookout!
Tuesday, 8 July 2008
Are things getting overly bearish?
Yes I believe so. Fundamentally we are now trading near crisis levels. Should it be a screaming buy now? Yes, politically we are now in unchartered territory but opportunities like this don't come very often. Below is an article from the Singapore Business Times.
Business Times - 08 Jul 2008
Uncertain times in Malaysia
IF Malaysia's stock exchange were regarded a barometer of its economy, the country is headed for a mighty storm. Since January, the benchmark Composite Index of the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange has dropped around 22 per cent, one of the worst performances in the Asia-Pacific region. Much of the steepest falls came after March 8, a watershed date in the country's history when the ruling National Front coalition registered its worst-ever electoral showing.
Sadly, things appear to have taken a turn for the worse since then. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has been attacked relentlessly by his predecessor Mahathir Mohamad who blames him for the Front's poor showing. In turn, Dr Mahathir himself is being attacked by a High Court judge for attempting to influence trial outcomes when he was in power.
And as if all this were not enough, a 23-year-old male aide claims that he was forcibly sodomised by the 61-year-old former deputy premier and de facto opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, echoing an allegation made against Mr Anwar a decade ago for which he was tried and eventually absolved.
Adding to the tension are allegations that Najib Razak, the current Deputy Prime Minister, was involved with a Mongolian model whose murder is the subject of an on-going trial. Worse, the man who released his statutory declaration with the allegations, retracted them the next day and has since vanished with his family, raising more questions about this case.
Meanwhile, Mr Anwar has lodged a police report alleging corruption against the country's top police officer and its Attorney-General. The reports are being investigated by the country's Anti-Corruption Agency.
Then there are questions about the integrity of High Court appointments following the inquiry and report on the so-called Lingam tapes. Clearly then, Malaysia is in a political mess. Yet, despite the gloom in the stock market, the broader economy is doing relatively well: it remains a net oil exporter and is a leading producer of commodities from palm oil and rubber to gold and pepper, all of which are fetching high global prices. Exports remain buoyant, the country has a strong net reserve position and domestic demand remains surprisingly resilient.
But, make no mistake, continued political uncertainty will take an economic toll; investors will stay on the sidelines till the dust settles.
Mr Anwar claims that he has enough support within Umno, the dominant partner in the ruling coalition, to engineer a collapse of the government.
But this only adds to the uncertainty. Economic management is getting little attention. Left to drift, the situation will eventually erode Malaysia's economic, as well as social, foundations - a dangerous development.
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved
Business Times - 08 Jul 2008
Uncertain times in Malaysia
IF Malaysia's stock exchange were regarded a barometer of its economy, the country is headed for a mighty storm. Since January, the benchmark Composite Index of the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange has dropped around 22 per cent, one of the worst performances in the Asia-Pacific region. Much of the steepest falls came after March 8, a watershed date in the country's history when the ruling National Front coalition registered its worst-ever electoral showing.
Sadly, things appear to have taken a turn for the worse since then. Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has been attacked relentlessly by his predecessor Mahathir Mohamad who blames him for the Front's poor showing. In turn, Dr Mahathir himself is being attacked by a High Court judge for attempting to influence trial outcomes when he was in power.
And as if all this were not enough, a 23-year-old male aide claims that he was forcibly sodomised by the 61-year-old former deputy premier and de facto opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, echoing an allegation made against Mr Anwar a decade ago for which he was tried and eventually absolved.
Adding to the tension are allegations that Najib Razak, the current Deputy Prime Minister, was involved with a Mongolian model whose murder is the subject of an on-going trial. Worse, the man who released his statutory declaration with the allegations, retracted them the next day and has since vanished with his family, raising more questions about this case.
Meanwhile, Mr Anwar has lodged a police report alleging corruption against the country's top police officer and its Attorney-General. The reports are being investigated by the country's Anti-Corruption Agency.
Then there are questions about the integrity of High Court appointments following the inquiry and report on the so-called Lingam tapes. Clearly then, Malaysia is in a political mess. Yet, despite the gloom in the stock market, the broader economy is doing relatively well: it remains a net oil exporter and is a leading producer of commodities from palm oil and rubber to gold and pepper, all of which are fetching high global prices. Exports remain buoyant, the country has a strong net reserve position and domestic demand remains surprisingly resilient.
But, make no mistake, continued political uncertainty will take an economic toll; investors will stay on the sidelines till the dust settles.
Mr Anwar claims that he has enough support within Umno, the dominant partner in the ruling coalition, to engineer a collapse of the government.
But this only adds to the uncertainty. Economic management is getting little attention. Left to drift, the situation will eventually erode Malaysia's economic, as well as social, foundations - a dangerous development.
Copyright © 2007 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved
Tuesday, 24 June 2008
Is the KLCI index hitting a low?
Is the index hitting a low? It appears to be building a base above the 1,188 support level. I think we should see a low this week, probably marginally lower then the 1,188 level - maybe 1,180 or so. Being a contrarian is akin to taking on high risks - so, investors who cannot or unwilling to take on such high risks ought to wait a while before getting. And for those who choose to get in, keep your stops tight - very tight.
Because there are too many stocks to buy and you don't know which is better, you might want to learn a bit more about trading futures. Trading the KLCI index futures (which is listed on Bursa) can offer certain oppotunities which stocks cannot offer - such as Leverage and shorting, where it is allowed in futures trading. Nevertheless, it is a double edge sword. You can make as much as the market gives you but you could also lose all in a blink of an eye.
Because there are too many stocks to buy and you don't know which is better, you might want to learn a bit more about trading futures. Trading the KLCI index futures (which is listed on Bursa) can offer certain oppotunities which stocks cannot offer - such as Leverage and shorting, where it is allowed in futures trading. Nevertheless, it is a double edge sword. You can make as much as the market gives you but you could also lose all in a blink of an eye.
Monday, 16 June 2008
Things are looking bearish here in Malaysia but...
Everything are starting to look bearish right now. Even our Bank Negara's governor - Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz says that BNM may revise their GDP forecast for 2008 of 5-6%. She says that "Right now there is also a risk that we may have a slower growth and this is being experienced in the global economy, including the region." The general feel is definitely cautious with a slight twist of bearishness right now. I think that this is common within a Wave 4 correction or a Wave 5(ii) correction. I believe that we are in a Wave 5(ii) and once this is over, the KLCI could rally strongly to all time highs by the final quarter of this year. Stay tuned!
Wednesday, 11 June 2008
Everything is looking bearish but...
Right now, everything is looking bearish... globally, everyone is facing high inflation. In the US, unemployment just rose and the word stagflation has begun spreading. However, it is still too early to confirm that the US is indeed in stagflation. Regionally, everyhting is also looking bleak. China's monetary tightening could squeeze the tight market even more. Coming back to our shores, Malaysia is now facing high political risk and 'possibly' high inflation. Everything and I mean Everything!!! are pointing to more bearishness ahead.
But wait, if everyone is hyper bearish, should we be contrarians and trade the other direction? There are still the element of risk if one should trade against the trend. Nevertheless, the returns do outweigh the risks, in my opinion. I believe that the KLCI index will find support around the 1,200-1,213 levels. The Hang Seng Index to find support around the 22,000-22,400 level. STI to find support at 2,945-3,006. Shanghai should hold around the 3,000 level, or slightly below. I still believe that the bull will be back sooner rather than later.. Will update again when the regional indices start to move upwards again.
But wait, if everyone is hyper bearish, should we be contrarians and trade the other direction? There are still the element of risk if one should trade against the trend. Nevertheless, the returns do outweigh the risks, in my opinion. I believe that the KLCI index will find support around the 1,200-1,213 levels. The Hang Seng Index to find support around the 22,000-22,400 level. STI to find support at 2,945-3,006. Shanghai should hold around the 3,000 level, or slightly below. I still believe that the bull will be back sooner rather than later.. Will update again when the regional indices start to move upwards again.
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